The first of what I believe to be major events this last week. After 50 years of ruling Cuba as a dictator (some would say tyrant, but I don't agree with that) Fidel Castro has officially stepped down in favor of his brother. This has been coming for awhile. Several health related issues have made the news for Castro in the last several years, most notably his loss of balance and fall from the stage after a speech a few years ago. It has been know that his brother had already taken most of the tasks of leadership over, so in some ways this is a formality. The question of course, is what happens to Cuba now.

In the short term? Not much. Very few policies will change, either internally in Cuba, or internationally towards them. As I noted above, Castro's brother already has been running the country. It would not surprise me for there to be several small symbolic changes. A few dissidents changed, or minor changes in trade relations to help create independent authority for the new regime, but it won't be much.

In the long term? I think in a few years we will see a lot begin to happen internally in Cuba to challenge the new regime. Castro's age and frailty have been know, and I expect have been prepared for. Individuals and groups ready to fight for change in Cuba have probably been waiting for this for several years and will now feel free to act. The "hero" figure that Fidel Castro had become personally was near impervious to political opponents. I don't think the new regime will be able to maintain the same reputation, and we will begin seeing strong opposition soon. Image is everything. Fidel Castro had it. His brother does not. There will be changes. Hopefully for the good.Perhaps an open, republican Cuba within ten years? But it will have to come from within, through the desire of the people of Cuba. "Nation Building" will only strengthen opponents of democratic systems and help them to maintain a dictatorship.